Portsmouth, NH real estate update for January 2024
The chart below shows the average sales price for both single-family homes and condos for 2023 compared to the previous two years. There were big jumps in both 2022 and 2023. That sort of growth is not sustainable over the long term and experts are predicting far more modest sales price gains in 2024. However, it’s still a good time to sell and buy. Portsmouth has proven to hold its value year after year.
Will 2024 be a buyer or a seller’s market?
To determine whether the current market favors buyers or sellers, one tool used is called the “absorption rate”. In order to determine a monthly absorption rate, take the total number of homes sold in the market and divide that by 12. Then, divide this monthly average number of homes sold by the total number of homes available for sale. If the answer is more than 6 months that indicates a buyer’s market. Less than 6 months indicates a seller’s market. Portsmouth has been in a very strong seller’s market for several years now driven by a lack of homes for sale and many buyers wanting to live here. The chart below shows a 2.3-month supply of homes for sale in December of 2023. That is an indication of a strong seller’s market.
What is the forecast for the 2024 Portsmouth NH market?
We’ll have to consult our trusty real estate crystal ball to answer that question. Based on all the estimates from the experts, and we consult with a big number of them, 2024 looks to remain a strong seller’s market. However, there will likely be a larger supply of homes for sale than in years past. Also, interest rates show some signs of moderating in 2024. Here’s what a couple of experts predict:
“Retreating mortgage rates will bring more buyers and sellers to the market and get Americans moving again,” says NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. At a NAR conference in November, Yun predicted that sales will rise by as much as 15 percent next year.
“Lower mortgage rates would help spur home sales activity, which are expected to increase in 2024 compared to 2023,” says Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Declines in mortgage rates will drive more sellers to trade their existing home and help add much-needed inventory to the market, leading to more transactions.”
Bottom line for the Portsmouth NH housing market in 2024
The combination of higher mortgage rates, increased home prices, and low inventory levels will combine to make 2024 a challenging one for both buyers and sellers. However, interest rates have shown signs of cooling a bit – if that continues throughout the year as some experts are predicting then market activity should heat up as a response.
Now more than ever, it’s very important to follow the guidance of an experienced, local real estate expert. With over 40+ years of experience each, local experts Ann Cummings and Jim Lee are uniquely positioned to guide you through your next real estate transaction. Let’s talk soon.