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Will The NH Seacoast Housing Market Crash?

NH Seacoast home prices are still growing.

If you’re unsure about where home prices are heading, it’s understandable. Some folks, and a lot of news outlets, are saying that prices are going down, but the actual data tells a different story. One important thing many reporters overlook is that the real estate market varies by location. Unlike a national market, each area has its own trends. So, if prices are staying the same or going down in one part of the country, it doesn’t necessarily mean the same is happening elsewhere. Here are the New Hampshire Seacoast average sales prices for the past three years. You can see a pretty steady upward trend.

What is “seasonality” in the housing market?

Another factor not considered by many, including the media is the seasonality of the real estate market. There are regular patterns that happen every year, known as seasonality. Spring is the busiest time for buying homes, and the market stays active in the summer. However, as the colder months approach, the activity tends to slow down. Home prices are influenced by seasonality because they tend to go up when there’s a high demand. This creates a consistent long-term trend in home prices. The graph below, using data from Case-Shiller, illustrates the usual percentage change in monthly home prices from 1973 to 2022

Here’s a local example of seasonality using median days on the market for the New Hampshire Seacoast.

You notice in the colder months, the days on the market increases while it drops pretty dramatically when the weather is warmer.

What about high interest rates?

Home values have held steady even as mortgage rates soared to 8 percent in October, reaching their highest levels in more than 23 years. The culprit is a lack of housing supply. Inventories remain frustratingly tight, with the New Hampshire Seacoast area showing only a 2.9 months supply of single family homes for sale at the end of October.

Here’s the bottom line for the New Hampshire Seacoast market

Home prices aren’t declining on the New Hampshire Seacoast real estate market; rather, the pace of price growth is starting to stabilize. Looking ahead, there’s a risk that the media may misinterpret this slowdown in home price growth as an actual decrease in prices. It’s essential not to unquestioningly accept everything you read in the headlines. The provided data offers the background you need to gain a true understanding of the local real estate situation. So, if you come across a confusing headline, don’t simply take it at face value. Reach out to trusted local real estate professionals, such as Jim Lee and Ann Cummings, who are well-acquainted with the New Hampshire Seacoast area, for more accurate information. And if you’re wondering what 2024 will bring to the Seacoast, click here to see what our crystal ball predicts for 2024.

New Hampshire REALTORS Ann Cummings and Jim Lee
Ann Cummings and Jim Lee, REALTORS, Homesellers

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