If you’re thinking about buying a home along the New Hampshire Seacoast or in Southern Maine, you’ve probably been keeping a close eye on mortgage rates. After a prolonged period of rising rates, there’s finally some good news: rates are starting to decline. But the big question is — how low will they go, and is this trend here to stay?
At RE/MAX Shoreline, we’ve been tracking these trends closely for our clients across Portsmouth, Rye, Exeter, Durham, Dover, and Seabrook, helping them understand what this shift could mean for their home buying or selling journey.
Why Mortgage Rates Are Tied to the 10-Year Treasury Yield
There’s a reason industry experts keep a close eye on the 10-year Treasury yield. For more than five decades, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have followed the ups and downs of this key benchmark. When the yield rises, mortgage rates tend to rise with it. When it falls, mortgage rates usually follow — and right now, both the yield and mortgage rates are trending downward.
This relationship is a guiding compass for economists, investors, and anyone in real estate. And for homebuyers in coastal New Hampshire and southern Maine, it’s a promising sign.
Understanding the Mortgage Rate “Spread” — And Why It’s Shrinking
The spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield typically averages about 1.76 percentage points (or 176 basis points). But over the past couple of years, that spread has been much wider — a reflection of uncertainty in the economy.
Think of the spread as the market’s emotional barometer. When there’s more fear or volatility, the gap grows. That’s one reason why mortgage rates in Portsmouth and surrounding towns have felt higher than expected lately.
But here’s where things get interesting: the spread is finally starting to narrow again. That shift signals renewed confidence and opens the door for rates to continue falling.
Forecasts Suggest a Gradual Decline Through 2025
Alongside a shrinking spread, many experts forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield itself will decrease into 2025. That one-two punch — a declining yield and a narrowing spread — could bring mortgage rates back down into the upper 5% range next year.
To give you an idea: if the 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.09%, and we apply the historical spread of 1.76%, we’d anticipate mortgage rates settling near 5.85% — a far more manageable number for many buyers across the NH Seacoast and Southern Maine coastal towns.
Of course, the exact trajectory depends on broader economic indicators: inflation, job growth, and the Federal Reserve’s next moves. But as of now, the outlook is optimistic.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in Portsmouth and Beyond
If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines in Rye, Exeter, or Dover — unsure if now is the right time to act — this might be your window. Lower mortgage rates could boost your buying power and bring more competition to the market. If you’re a seller in Seabrook or Durham, declining rates may bring new buyers into the market just in time for a strong fall or early spring season.
Let’s Talk Strategy
Navigating mortgage shifts can feel overwhelming, especially if you’re trying to time a move or investment. That’s where we come in.
With decades of combined experience helping clients buy and sell across coastal New Hampshire and southern Maine, Jim Lee and Ann Cummings of RE/MAX Shoreline are here to guide you — whether you’re curious about today’s rates, exploring your options, or ready to make your next move.
Visit NewHampshireMaineRealEstate.com to explore local market insights, view the latest listings, and stay up to date on mortgage rate trends.
Or give us a call directly at 603.436.1221 — we’re always happy to help you navigate the waters of coastal real estate. 
Ready to make a move while rates are on your side? Let’s talk about your goals and how to make the most of this evolving market.
