With so many headlines floating around about an impending housing market crash, it’s understandable that buyers and sellers alike are feeling cautious. But if you’re waiting for a big price drop before making your next move, it’s time to take a closer look at the actual numbers — not the noise.
At RE/MAX Shoreline, we’re always watching the data, and what we’re seeing today points to steady, sustainable home price growth, not a crash.
What Experts Are Really Saying About Home Prices
The Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae brings together over 100 leading real estate economists and market experts each quarter. And the latest projections are clear: home prices are expected to rise nationally through at least 2029.
Here’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.
Let’s break it down:
- Average projected appreciation from now through 2029: +15%
- Most optimistic forecast: +26%
- Even the most pessimistic forecast: +5%
That’s right — even the cautious forecasters agree that home values are going up, not down.
And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):
A Return to “Normal” Growth – Especially on the Seacoast
If you’ve been watching the Seacoast housing market in Portsmouth, Rye, Dover, Exeter, or other communities along the New Hampshire Seacoast, you’ve likely noticed things feel a bit calmer than during the pandemic boom.
That’s not a bad thing.
From 2020 to 2022, prices surged at an unsustainable pace — in some cases increasing 15–20% per year. Now, we’re seeing a shift to more moderate and healthy appreciation, projected around 2–3.5% annually for the next five years.
While slightly below the 25-year national average of 4–5%, this rate of growth is far more sustainable and reflective of a balanced market. And with coastal New Hampshire and Southern Maine continuing to attract out-of-state buyers looking for lifestyle, location, and community, local prices are expected to remain resilient.
Why Home Prices Aren’t Likely to Fall
Let’s talk supply and demand.
Despite challenges around affordability and interest rates, there’s still not enough housing inventory to meet buyer demand — especially in desirable Seacoast towns like Portsmouth and Rye, where new listings remain limited and coastal properties are always in high demand.
That tight inventory is the key reason why experts aren’t forecasting a crash. In fact, that shortage continues to support upward pressure on home prices, both nationally and here in New Hampshire.
And remember — housing has a long track record of recovery, even through economic uncertainty. Historically, home values bounce back stronger, and we’re seeing early signs of that recovery now.
Bottom Line for Buyers and Sellers on the NH Seacoast
If you’re on the fence about buying or selling because of scary headlines, it’s time to trust the data. The New Hampshire Seacoast housing market is stable, and home prices are expected to keep rising, just at a more reasonable pace than the frenzied years we’ve just come through.
The real question isn’t if home values will go up — it’s by how much.
Let’s connect and talk about what these forecasts mean for your plans. Whether you’re buying your first home in Dover, moving up to a coastal dream property in Rye, or thinking of downsizing in Exeter, we’re here to guide you with local expertise you can count on.
Let’s Talk About Your Move
Reach out to Jim Lee & Ann Cummings at RE/MAX Shoreline today for a personalized market update and expert guidance tailored to your real estate goals.
Call us directly at 603.436.1221
Explore listings, market trends, and area info at:
www.NewHampshireMaineRealEstate.com
Ann Cummings & Jim Lee, REALTORS, Local Experts, Certified Residential Specialists (CRS), Graduate, REALTOR Institute, Accredited Buyer Representative (ABR), Seniors Real Estate Specialists (SRES)